IMF projects Saudi Arabia's oil output to hit 11M bpd by 2029

Amine Mati, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Mission Chief for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia's oil production is expected to reach 11 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029, according to Amine Mati, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Mission Chief for Saudi Arabia.

In an interview with Asharq TV, Mati added that the IMF expects the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers (OPEC+) to completely reverse its production cuts by 2025.

“Considering the announcements made by OPEC+ and the voluntary production cuts by Saudi Arabia, the cuts will be extended until June 2024,” he said.

Mati clarified that based on the baseline scenario, a complete reversal of oil production cuts is expected by 2025, with production reaching 10 million bpd from 2025 onward, ultimately reaching 11 million bpd in the medium term.

Additionally, the senior official highlighted an increase in natural gas production and some refinery output, which will impact both oil and gas production.

However, when considering the reversal of OPEC+ production cuts and some production increases, these factors will be influential in driving the oil market, he added, emphasizing the importance of recognizing the thriving economy in non-oil sectors.

According to data available on Argaam, the IMF recently raised its forecast for Saudi economic growth by approximately 0.5% to 6% for 2025, compared to 5.5% in January 2024.