US crude exports set to double by 2022, says report

US crude exports could grow from current levels of 2.9 million barrels per day (mpd) to nearly 6 million mpd by 2022, according to a new forecast from Rystad Energy.

With US production expected to increase by 1.2 mbd year-over-year (YoY) in 2020, and with domestic refineries already maxing out capacity to absorb shale growth, Rystad Energy expects exports to balloon and reach 4.7 mbd by the end of 2020 and nearly 6 mbd by the end of 2022.

“Crude exports will grow on the back of new infrastructure coming online in Corpus Christi, Texas, and as international crude buyers ramp up efforts to diversify their import sources after the attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and overall rising tensions in the Middle East,” Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, a senior analyst on Rystad Energy’s oil market team said.

US crude exports slowed significantly in the third quarter of 2019 after reaching a record level of nearly 3.2 mbd in June 2019. This recent slowdown related in part to the narrowing of the Brent-WTI price spread, along with headwinds from the 5 percent tariff imposed on US crude by China, the third-largest buyer of American crude year to date.

However, Rystad Energy forecasts that crude exports will rebound to an unprecedented 3.7 mbd during the fourth quarter of 2019 before climbing to even higher levels.

“This surge in crude shipments from the US will be made possible by a flurry of new pipeline and export terminal infrastructure coming online in the coming years,” Rodriguez-Masiu added.