Minister of Economy expects inflation to be below 4% by year-end

Saudi Minister of Economy Faisal Alibrahim

Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim said that inflation in the Kingdom has been successfully contained, adding that its impact on consumers, the private sector and companies is constantly monitored.

Thus, inflation in the Kingdom is expected to be below 4% by year-end, the minister told CNBC Arabia.

He pointed out that the Kingdom's Vision 2030 led to more engagement of Saudi with the global economy, saying: "We are noting the expectations of recession and a global economic slowdown and the extent of its impact on the Saudi economy.”

He also expected the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to 4.75% this year.

"Given the correlation between the monetary policy in the US and Saudi Arabia, we are closely monitoring how this can impact liquidity and the private sector in the Kingdom. We are also ensuring that the private sector is immune and has access to loans at reasonable rates that do not affect its activities or growth," said the minister.

The financial situation in Saudi Arabia is robust and there is no reason to fear, Alibrahim said.

Moreover, the management and governance of liquidity are high, the minister said, adding oil revenues are on the rise and are being utilized in various aspects, including increasing investments, seizing opportunities, paying off debts, setting aside reserves and accelerating some quality projects that have been delayed during the pandemic.

He stressed that the Kingdom's non-oil activity in Q2 2022 recorded its highest growth in 11 years, as Saudi Arabia aspires for further growth, given that it is a key factor in diversifying sources of income.

There are three elements for independence from oil prices. First, the general budget aims to be independent of oil prices. The additional income is used when oil prices are higher in various aspects, and aims to borrow or benefit from earlier investments or reserves when oil prices go down, the minister said.

Second is the Public Investment Fund (PIF), as its investments and activities are independent of any government support, oil prices and the budget. Finally, the Kingdom seeks to increase the private sector’s participation in the gross domestic product (GDP) to 65%. Saudi Arabia also aims to accelerate the diversification of the non-oil export base to be more independent from oil.

Over time, the general budget and government spending will be independent as much as possible from oil prices. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia will continue its leadership in the carbon, clean and renewable energy sector.

The minister added that the non-oil private sector’s contribution to GDP rose from less than 40% before the launch of Saudi Vision 2030 to 46%-57%. The Kingdom is witnessing increasing participation and targets a non-oil sector contribution to 65% of GDP.

Meanwhile, Alibrahim added that Saudi Arabia aims to cut unemployment by the end of 2022, and has other targets by the end of 2025 and 2030. Unemployment rates among Saudi females are the lowest in 21 years and are the lowest among Saudis since the launch of unemployment statistics.

The Kingdom is watching unemployment figures to judge the labor market health, Alibrahim said, noting that the labor market is on the right track.

The private sector is monitored, being the driver for addressing unemployment challenges, the minister said.