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JP Morgan analysts believe that the growing uncertainty has forced the Federal Reserve to change course, shifting from gradual steps to fearing a too late rate cut, due to the weakness of the US labor market.
"The weak labor demand and rising unemployment raise concerns about the US economy slipping into recession, despite financial market optimism about the future path of business performance," according to a memo from the US lender.
The analysts added that Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole confirms a shift in the assessment of risks, and that the Fed does not want to wait until business conditions improve, which means that interest rates should be cut by about 100 basis points by the end of this year.
With only three policy meetings remaining this year, analysts see that the Fed should shift from a minor cut by 25 bps at each meeting, to a 50 bps monetary easing during at least one of its meetings this year.
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