Saudi Arabia estimates 2025 revenues at SAR 1.18T, expenditure at SAR 1.28T

Saudi Arabia's pre-budget statement estimated state revenues at SAR 1.18 trillion and expenditure at SAR 1.28 trillion for 2025, with an expected deficit of SAR 101 billion, the Ministry of Finance said today, Sept. 30.

 

For the current year, the Kingdom’s revenue and expenditure are forecasted to come in at SAR 1.23 trillion and SAR 1.35 trillion, respectively, possibly fueling a deficit of SAR 118 billion.

 

Actual Revenues & Expenditure of Saudi Budget (2000-2025)

Year

Revenues

(SAR bln)

Expenditure

(SAR bln)

Surplus/(Deficit)

(SAR bln)​

2025 est.

1184

1285

(101)

2024 fcast.

1237

1355

(118)

2024 est.

1172

1251

(79)

2023 Actual

1212

1293

(81)

2022

1268

1164

104

2021

965

1039

(73)

2020

782

1076

(294)

2019

927

1059

(133)

2018

906

1079

(174)

2017

692

930

(238)

2016

519

831

(311)

2015

613

1001

(389)

2014

1040

1141

(101)

2013

1153

995

158

2012

1247

917

329

2011

1118

827

291

2010

741

654

87

2009

510

596

(87)

2008

1101

520

581

2007

643

466

177

2006

674

393

280

2005

564

346

218

2004

392

285

107

2003

293

257

36

2002

213

234

(21)

2001

228

255

(27)

2000

258

235

23
 
Fiscal Indicators for 2025 and the Medium Term​:
 
For FY2024, real GDP is expected to increase by 0.8%, driven by growth in non-oil activities, which are projected to achieve a growth rate of 3.7%. These projections are reinforced by the positive economic indicators observed in H1 of FY2024, particularly in private consumption and investment. The interest rate cut is also expected to boost demand, which in turn should have a positive impact on economic growth.
 
It is anticipated that the positive performance of real GDP will persist in FY2025 as preliminary estimates indicate an increase of 4.6%.
Inflation is expected to reach 1.7% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025, 2026 and 2027.

The 2025 budget is expected to record a deficit of around 2.3% of GDP, with a continued budget deficit at similar levels in the medium term as the government adopts strategic expansionary spending policies that support economic diversification and sustainable growth.

 

Key Fiscal Indicators in Medium term (SAR bln)

 

Item

Actual

Forecasts

Estimates

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

Total Revenues

1212

1237

1184

1198

1289

Total Expenditure​

1293

1355

1285

1328

1429

BudgetSurplus/(Deficit)​

(81)

(118)

(101)

(130)

(140)

Real GDP Growth

(0.8%)

0.8%

4.6%

3.5%

4.7%

Nominal GDP

4003

4091

4352

4431

4718

Inflation

2.3%

1.7%

1.9%

1.9%

1.9%
 
FY2025 budget reflects the government’s commitment to achieving the objectives of Saudi Vision 2030 by advancing the fiscal and economic reforms. This includes implementing a fiscal policy that balances the utilization of the available fiscal space —stemming from the government’s strong fiscal position, the existence of financial reserves and relatively low public debt compared to peer countries— with the ongoing improvements in spending efficiency and expenditure prioritization. This approach involves accelerating certain projects and strategies that support sustainable economic growth, while adjusting the timelines of other projects. The aim is to stabilize the economy, diversify its base for greater sustainability, and maximize economic and social returns.
 
At the same time, the government remains committed towards improving the quality of services provided to citizens and residents by strengthening the social protection system and directing it towards the intended beneficiaries.
 
The FY2025 budget highlights the Kingdom’s commitment to accelerate the regulatory and structural reforms, as well as the development of policies.
 
It also focuses on transformative spending to promote sustainable economic growth, improve social development, and enhance the quality of life. Moreover, the government aims to utilize sovereign and development funds for capital investment while empowering both the private and non-profit sectors to foster growth and prosperity.
 
In FY2025, the budget is projected to record a deficit of approximately 2.3% of GDP. It is anticipated that the deficit will persist at similar levels over the medium term, due to the expansionary spending policies intended to support economic growth.
 
The fiscal policy aims to preserve the Kingdom’s strong fiscal position while achieving fiscal sustainability through maintaining safe levels of government reserves, and ensuring sustainability of public debt. This strategy aims to strengthen the Kingdom’s ability to deal with unforeseen shocks.

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