OPEC cuts global oil demand growth outlook for 4th straight month

Logo of OPEC 

OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth outlook for 2024 and 2025 for the fourth consecutive month, citing a decline in Chinese demand after launching less-than-expected stimulus packages.

In its Monthly Oil Market Report issued today, Nov. 12, the group trimmed its 2024 forecast for global oil demand growth by 107,000 barrels to 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd).

It also slashed its growth estimate for 2025 by 103,000 barrels to 1.5 million bpd.

Additionally, OPEC expected demand growth in OECD countries to amount to 100,000 bpd, and 1.4 million bpd in non-member countries.

China was the primary driver of the downward revision. OPEC reduced its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth to 450,000 and 310,000 bpd in 2024 and 2025, respectively, down from 580,000 and 410,000 bpd in the previous report.

However, the organization said the Chinese travel sector will be the most prominent driver of oil demand, in addition to the expansion of the petrochemical sector in the short term. Further, fiscal stimulus measures are expected to have a positive impact on consumer purchasing power and promote many infrastructure projects.

On the supply side, OPEC maintained its expectations for supply growth from non-member countries at 1.2 million bpd in 2024, led by the US and Canada, and 1.1 million bpd in 2025, supported by output by these two countries besides Norway and Brazil.

OPEC also projected the global economy to grow by 3.1% and 3% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. In addition, it slightly raised its estimate for US economic growth this year to 2.7%, from 2.5% previously.