IEA cuts oil surplus forecast for 2025

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that new US sanctions targeting Russia's oil sector could significantly disrupt its supply and logistics chains, prompting the agency to lower its forecast for this year’s global oil surplus.

In its monthly report released today, Jan. 15, the Paris-based agency stated that US sanctions announced on Jan. 10 are likely to complicate oil trade logistics for Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, as well as for tanker insurance providers.

The sanctions targeted two major Russian oil firms and 183 tankers within Moscow’s so-called shadow fleet, which facilitates crude shipments for these nations.

The IEA marginally raised its forecast for global oil consumption, adding 100,000 barrels per day (bpd). It now expects demand growth to accelerate to 1.05 million bpd this year, citing a slightly improved economic outlook.

Global oil inventories are projected to increase by 725,000 bpd in 2025, down from the prior estimate of 950,000 bpd, according to the agency.

Speculation is mounting that the next US administration may adopt a more aggressive stance toward Iran’s oil exports, the report noted. This follows the US Treasury’s expansion of sanctions on Dec. 19, which targeted tankers carrying Iranian crude.

The new sanctions impacted vessels transporting more than 500,000 bpd of Iranian oil on average, accounting for roughly one-third of the country’s exports.

The agency added that if global supply tightens due to weather, sanctions, or other developments, stockpile withdrawals could accelerate to meet short-term refinery needs.