OPEC holds steady on 2025 global oil demand growth forecast

Logo of OPEC

OPEC kept its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 unchanged, with the expectation that it will remain steady at the same rate in the following year.

In its monthly report released Wednesday, the organization confirmed that global demand for crude oil is expected to rise by 1.4 million bpd this year, in line with its December estimates.

Looking ahead to 2026, OPEC forecasts similar demand growth of 1.4 million bpd, with non-OECD countries driving a 1.3 million bpd increase.

The Vienna-based organization also expects global economic growth of 3.1% in 2025, unchanged from its previous forecast, but has revised its 2026 growth projection to 3.2%, up from 3%.

This upward revision reflects improved inflation outlooks and anticipated adjustments in monetary policies across key economies.

OPEC noted that the services sector will remain the primary contributor to economic growth, complemented by a gradual recovery in industrial production.

Additionally, the group revised down its 2025 oil demand forecast for non-OPEC+ countries by 0.1 million bpd, now estimating a total of 42.5 million bpd. This adjustment reflects changes in the 2024 base year data but still represents a 0.3 million bpd year-on-year increase from last year's demand estimate.