IEA raises 2025 global oil demand growth forecast

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International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025, with an increased share of consumption coming from India and emerging Asian economies. In its monthly report released today, Feb. 13, the IEA expects global oil demand to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from its previous estimate of 1.05 bpd.

However, the Paris-based agency revised its 2024 demand growth forecast down to 870,000 bpd from 940,000 bpd in the previous report.

The report also noted that Chinese consumption remains the largest contributor to the expected growth in global demand this year, alongside the increased share of India and emerging Asian economies in total demand.

Global oil production decreased by 950,000 bpd to 102.7 bpd in January, primarily due to the negative impact on North American supply from seasonal temperature drops, as well as reduced production in Nigeria and Libya, the report noted.

Despite the monthly decline, January’s production remained 1.9 million bpd higher than the same period in 2024, supported by supplies from the Americas.

The IEA also highlighted that global oil markets experienced significant volatility in January, with prices rising sharply due to several pressures, including concerns over new sanctions on Russia and Iran, fears of supply disruptions, and risks associated with recent trade wars and their potential impact on the global economy and energy demand growth.

However, the disruptions caused by sanctions on Russia and Iran have not yet impacted global oil supplies, the report added.