Goldman Sachs raises US recession risk, lowers oil price forecast

Goldman Sachs once again raised the probability of a US economic recession, while lowering its forecast for global oil prices in 2026, citing the risk of a global recession due to Trump's protectionist policies.

The investment bank said in a recent note that the probability of a US economic recession over the next 12 months has risen to 45%, compared to its previous estimate of 35% issued just a week ago, Reuters reported.

The US lender cited the decline to worsening financial conditions and rising political uncertainty — two key factors likely to cause capital spending to drop more than expected.

In an April 6 note, Goldman Sachs said that it had lowered its expected annual average price for the benchmark Brent crude oil in 2026 by $4 from its previous estimate to $58 per barrel and by a similar amount for its US counterpart, Nymex, to $55.

Last Friday, the bank lowered its estimates for average prices in 2026 to $62 for Brent and $59 for US crude.

Accordingly, Goldman Sachs reduced its forecast for global demand growth for crude oil in 2025 to 300,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from its previous estimate of 600,000 barrels. For 2026, it projected demand growth to reach 400,000 barrels per day.

The downward revision in oil demand growth forecasts was driven by expectations of slower global GDP growth, which offset the positive impact of a weaker dollar and lower oil prices.