Moody’s downgrades Oman banking sector to negative amid weak govt capacity

Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded its outlook on Oman’s banking system to negative from stable on weaker economic growth, tight regional liquidity, and lower government capacity to support banks.

On July 28, Moody’s had also cut its outlook on the Omani government’s credit rating to negative, due to its reduced capacity to support banks in case of need.

"We expect a softening in Oman's operating environment, with fiscal consolidation amid prolonged oil price weakness weighing on economic growth," said analyst Mik Kabeya. “This will weigh on credit growth, which we forecast to fall to 5 percent in 2017, down from 10.1 percent in 2016 and 12 percent in 2015.”

Lower economic growth will drive a marginal weakening in problem loans to around 3 percent of gross loans in 2017-18, from 2.1 percent at the end of March this year, Moody's added. 

High concentrations of loans to single borrowers and to the real estate sector pose downside risks to asset quality, Moody’s said. However, the firm expects capital to remain sound, providing strong loss absorbency.

Net interest margins are expected to remain stable at around 2.4 percent, as higher lending rates offset increasing funding costs, while loan loss provisioning will increase somewhat as problem loans rise.

Funding and liquidity conditions are likely to remain tight in Oman, as high domestic government borrowing limits funds available to lend to the wider economy.

However, the Omani government's international bond issuances, slower credit growth and higher oil prices will moderate the pressure, Moody’s said.