EIA sees world energy use rising 28% by 2040

World energy consumption will grow to 736 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) by 2040, rising 28 percent from 575 quadrillion Btu in 2015, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its International Energy Outlook 2017.

The increase will mainly come from emerging economies, driven by long-term growth in economies and populations, the agency said. Non-OECD Asia, including China and India, alone accounts for more than half of the world’s total increase in energy consumption over the 2015 to 2040 projection period.

Fossil fuels will account for 77 percent of energy use in 2040, with natural gas as the fastest-growing fossil fuel. Liquid fuels — mostly petroleum-based—will remain the largest source of world energy consumption, the agency said.

EIA expects global use of petroleum and other liquid fuels to grow from 95 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2015 to 104 million bpd in 2030 and to 113 million bpd in 2040.

“However, the liquids share of world marketed energy consumption falls from 33% in 2015 to 31% in 2040, as oil prices rise steadily, leading many energy users to adopt more energy-efficient technologies and to switch away from liquid fuels when feasible,” the report said.

Renewables will be the world’s fastest-growing energy source, with consumption increasing by an average 2.3 percent per year between 2015 and 2040. The second fastest-growing source of energy is projected to be nuclear power, with consumption increasing by 1.5 percent per year over that period, EIA said.