EIA lifts forecast for Brent price, US production in 2018

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised the price estimates on Brent crude for this year and the next, and increased its forecast on US production in 2018, in its latest monthly energy outlook report.

Brent crude is expected to average $52 per barrel (bbl) in 2017 and $54/bbl in 2018, an increase by $1/bbl and $2/bbl, respectively, compared with last month’s outlook.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) average crude oil prices are forecast to be $3.5/bbl lower than Brent prices in 2018.

“NYMEX contract values for January 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending October 5 suggest that a range of $40/bbl to $65/bbl encompasses the market expectation for January WTI prices at the 95 percent confidence level,” the report said.

The agency said it expects US crude oil production to average 9.92 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018 – which would be the highest annual average production in US history, crossing the previous record of 9.6 million bpd in 1970.

The outlook report last month held 2018 US production at 9.84 million bpd.

EIA expects total US crude oil production to average 9.2 million bpd in 2017.