Saudi petchem sector’s earnings to rise 40% in Q4: SICO

The aggregate earnings of Saudi-listed petrochemical companies will rise 40 percent year-on-year, mainly due to higher product prices, Bahrain-based SICO Investment Bank said in a report on Tuesday.

Average petrochemical product prices for a basket of major products gained 13 percent YoY and 8 percent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) during Q4, the report said.

Feedstock prices also increased; Naphtha rose 27 percent YoY and 22 percent QoQ, while Saudi propane climbed 57 percent YoY and 40 percent QoQ.

Meanwhile, PE naphtha and PP naphtha spreads have declined from $800/ton and $700/ton respectively, to $650/ton and $570/ton levels, led by higher feedstock costs (higher oil) and lower product price growth.

Commenting on the outlook for the global petrochemical sector, SICO said the industry will see a supply-driven downturn in 2018 and 2019, mainly due to capacity expansions in the US and China.

About 10.5 million tons of ethylene capacity will enter the U.S. market before the end of 2019, creating a supply glut as the domestic US market is not growing fast enough to absorb the additional capacity.

Supply will also outstrip demand for polyethylene, resulting in lower operating rates and thereby depressing prices, SICO said.

Against this backdrop, SICO’s preferred picks in the sector are Yansab and Saudi Kayan from large caps, and Sipchem, SIIG and Petrochem from midcaps.

The brokerage has a ‘Buy’ rating on all five companies, with target prices of SAR 73 for Yansab, SAR 14 for Saudi Kayan, SAR 22 for Sipchem, SAR 25 for SIIG, and SAR 22 for Petrochem.

“We prefer company specific themes – names with earnings drivers and their ability to increase dividend pay-out; having less or zero exposure to the ethylene chain; expanding through debottlenecking projects with improving operations’ [and] exposed to commodities which are relatively in demand-supply balance,” the report said.

In terms of the outlook for commodity prices, SICO kept its crude oil price projection for 2018/19 unchanged at $60-$65 per barrel, and maintained its previous product price estimates for ethylene, naphtha and MTBE.

Meanwhile, the brokerage increased its methanol price estimate from $325 to $350 for 2018.

“Our product price estimates for 2018 are, on average, conservative and 7 percent lower than spot prices,” SICO said.