Middle East to remain world’s largest oil exporter by 2040: BP

The Middle East region will remain the world’s largest oil producing region over 2040, accounting for 34 percent of global liquids production, British firm BP said in its energy outlook released earlier this week.

The region’s energy consumption, meanwhile, is seen as increasing 54 percent over the forecast period, with natural gas representing almost 60 percent of that growth.

The share of non-fossil fuels in the region’s consumption is expected to grow from the current 1 percent to 8 percent in 2040, driven by a strong growth in solar, wind and nuclear energy, the report said.

Natural gas production is forecast to increase by 60 percent by 2040, mostly led by growth in Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, it added.

“The region remains the largest LNG exporter throughout the outlook, representing 25 percent of global LNG exports by 2040, down from 35 percent in 2016,” BP said.

“Pipeline exports to other regions increase to 3 Bcf/d by 2040,” it added.

On a global level, BP said the world energy demand is expected to grow by 1.3 percent per year from 2016 to 2040. Emerging economies will account for all of this growth, with China and India each accounting for over a quarter the increase.

“By 2040, oil, gas, coal and non-fossil fuels each account for around a quarter of the world’s energy,” said Spencer Dale, group chief economist at BP.

Global oil demand is seen increasing by around 11 million barrels per day (bpd) to reach 105 million bpd by 2040. The growth of demand is roughly equally split between the transport sector and non-combusted uses, the report said.

The growth in global supply will be driven by US tight oil in the early part of the outlook, with OPEC taking over from the late 2020s as Middle East producers adopt a strategy of growing market share, it added.

Renewables will be the fastest growing fuel source, quintupling over the outlook period.

“Renewables provide 43 percent of the growth in energy over the outlook; their share in primary energy rises from 4 percent today to 14 percent by 2040,” BP said.

Write to Nadeshda Zareen at nadeshda.zareen@argaamplus.com