OPEC hikes global oil supply, demand forecasts for 2018

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised up its forecast world oil supply for this year on the back of higher-than-expected output in Q1 2018, mainly in the United States and the former Soviet Union (FSU).

Non-OPEC supply is estimated to average 59.61 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018, an upward revision by 0.08 million bpd from the previous month’s assessment, OPEC said in its latest monthly oil market report.

This reflects year-on-year growth of 1.71 million bpd year-on-year (YoY).

OPEC’s production in 2018 is estimated to grow by 0.18 million bpd YoY to average 6.49 million bpd in 2018.

In March, OPEC crude production decreased by 201,000 bpd to average 31.96 million bpd, according to secondary sources.

Production mainly decreased in Angola, Venezuela, Algeria and Saudi Arabia, but this was partially offset by higher production in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Saudi Arabia cut its output by nearly 47,000 bpd in March to 9.934 million bpd, according to secondary sources.

The direct communication figures showed a 28,000 bpd decline in Saudi production in March.

Meanwhile, UAE added nearly 45,000 bpd in March to reach 2.864 million bpd, secondary sources data showed.

OPEC also hiked its world oil demand growth in 2018 by 30,000 bpd, to 1.63 million bpd.

“This mainly reflects the positive momentum in the OECD in the Q1 2018 on the back of better-than-expected data, and supported by development in industrial activities, colder-than-anticipated weather and strong mining activities in the OECD Americas and the OECD Asia Pacific,” the report said.

“In the non-OECD region, Other Asia saw an upward revision of 30,000 bpd in Q1 2018 as a result of better-than-expected demand in the industrial and transportation sectors in the first two months of the year,” it added.

Write to Nadeshda Zareen at nadeshda.zareen@argaamplus.com