Non-OPEC oil output likely to exceed forecast expectations: IEA

Oil output by producers from outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will see a higher-than-expected rise this year led by US shale, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

The IEA revised up its estimates for output growth outside OPEC to 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019. Accordingly, total output from these countries is likely to increase to 64.4 million bpd, 300,000 bpd higher than expected.

However, the agency kept its global demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.4 million bpd, taking total 2019 consumption to 100.6 million bpd.

Despite a dramatic fall in supply not only from the Kingdom but other producers such as Iran and Venezuela, prices have held around the $60 a barrel mark.

“There are no signs that other producers, [such as] Saudi Arabia, are intending to push more barrels into the market to offset shortfalls,” the IEA said.

“Oil prices have not increased alarmingly because the market is still working off the surpluses built up in the second half of 2018,” the Paris-based agency added.  

In December, OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed to trim output by 1.2 million bpd after a 40 percent fall in prices from $86 a barrel in October.