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Luberef seen to post profit decline in Q3 2023
In this report, Argaam highlights the expected results of Saudi Aramco Base Oil Co. (Luberef) in Q3 2023, in addition to the development in quarterly earnings, as well as performance and profitability indicators.
The third-quarter revenue is projected to fall 7.34% year-on-year (YoY) to SAR 2.52 billion.
Quarter Revenue Changes (M Riyal)
| Item | Q3 2022 |
Q4 2022 |
Q1 2023 |
Q2 2023 |
Q3 2023 (Average Estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 2,721.82 | 1,808.83 | 1,796.74 | 2,613.03 | 2,522.00 |
| Change % | 14.43% | (25.13%) | (34.44%) | (21.82%) | (7.34%) |
Quarter Net Income Changes (M Riyal)
| Item | Q3 2022 | Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 (Average Estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | 474.79 | 763.19 | 445.67 | 454.85 | 288.50 |
| Extraordinary income/expense | (23.46) | 194.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - |
| Net Profit Before Unusual Items | 498.24 | 568.96 | 445.67 | 454.85 | - |
| EPS Before Unusual Items (Riyal/Share) | 2.95 | 3.37 | 2.64 | 2.70 | 1.71 |
Key Events in Q3 2023
- The company’s board of directors decided to distribute a 50% cash dividend, or SAR 5 a share, for H1 2023.
- The board of directors approved adopting a performance-linked dividend policy at 60-80% of the company’s annual free cash flows. The company will factor in the capital expenditure, and its ability to fund obligations, including capital growth plans.
Quarterly Profit and Revenue (M Riyal)
Average Estimates
Luberef is forecast to post a net profit of SAR 288.5 million for Q3 2023, 42.1% lower YoY, according to average estimates by two research firms.
Quarterly Actuals vs Estimates (M Riyal)
Average Estimate (M Riyal)
| Analyst | Million Riyals |
|---|---|
| SNB Capital Company | 326.00 |
| Al Rajhi Capital Company | 251.00 |
| Average | 288.50 |
| Net Profit Before Unusual Items (2022 - Q3) | 498.24 |
| Change % | (42.10%) |
Performance and Profitability Indicators
The following table illustrates the stock performance, P/E and earnings per share (EPS) in the last 12 months (TTM) and year to date (YTD):
Stock Performance
| Item | The Company | TASI |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | (24.93 %) | (0.40 %) |
| Change(12M) | (20.55 %) | (12.27 %) |
| Previous Close | 126.60 | 10,504.76 |
| P/E adjusted (x) | 10.86 | 21.89 |
| EPS (TTM) before unusual items (SAR/Share) | 11.66 | - |
Valuation Data (Latest Share Price)
| P/E (TTM) | 17.82 |
| P/E Before Unusual Items (TTM) | 18.32 |
| P/BV | 4.44 |
| Dividend Yield | 6.87 % |
| Market Cap. (M) | 18,393.75 |
| Return on Average Assets | 11.72 % |
| Return on Average Equity | 23.50 % |
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