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Savola’s profit expected to drop in Q1 2023
In this report, Argaam highlights the expected results of Savola Group for the first quarter of 2023, its key events, quarterly sales and profit, as well as its performance and profitability indicators.
The first-quarter revenue is anticipated to fall 1.74% year-on-year (YoY) to SAR 7.35 billion.
Quarter Revenue Changes (M Riyal)
| Item | Q1 2022 |
Q2 2022 |
Q3 2022 |
Q4 2022 |
Q1 2023 (Average Estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 7,489.35 | 6,888.31 | 7,072.41 | 6,604.64 | 7,359.00 |
| Change % | 25.80% | 16.73% | 16.93% | (2.23%) | (1.74%) |
| Income from Affiliate | 195.98 | 196.70 | 170.71 | 97.20 | NA |
| Change % | 52.55% | 14.51% | 14.56% | (9.84%) | NA |
Quarter Net Income Changes (M Riyal)
| Item | Q1 2022 | Q2 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 (Average Estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | 270.89 | 213.75 | 163.64 | 94.47 | 201.00 |
| Extraordinary income/expense | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 107.03 | - |
| Net Profit Before Unusual Items | 270.89 | 213.75 | 163.64 | (12.56) | - |
| EPS Before Unusual Items (Riyal/Share) | 0.30 | 0.23 | 0.18 | (0.01) | 0.22 |
Key events in Q1 2023
The company announced plans to repurchase 2.5 million treasury shares, to be allocated for the long-term employee stock incentive plan. The current percentage of the firm’s treasury shares of total target shares stands at 0.25%.
The board of directors recommended a 6.6% cash dividend, or SAR 0.66 a share, for 2022.
Quarterly Profit and Revenue (M Riyal)
Average estimates
Savola is forecast to post SAR 201 million net earnings for Q1 2023, a decline of 25.8% compared to the same quarter of 2022, according to median estimates by two research houses.
Quarterly Actuals vs Estimates (M Riyal)
Average Estimate (M Riyal)
| Analyst | Million Riyals |
|---|---|
| Al Rajhi Capital Company | 265.00 |
| SNB Capital Company | 137.00 |
| Average | 201.00 |
| Net Profit Before Unusual Items (2022 - Q1) | 270.89 |
| Change % | (25.80%) |
Performance and profitability indicators
The following table illustrates the stock performance, P/E ratio and earnings per share (EPS) trailing 12 months (TTM) and year to date.
Stock Performance
| Item | The Company | TASI |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | 10.45 % | 6.73 % |
| Change(12M) | 9.00 % | (18.55 %) |
| Previous Close | 19.30 | 11,256.39 |
| P/E adjusted (x) | 30.57 | 21.64 |
| EPS (TTM) before unusual items (SAR/Share) | 0.70 | - |
Valuation Data (Latest Share Price)
| P/E (TTM) | 30.84 |
| P/E Before Unusual Items (TTM) | 35.27 |
| P/BV | 1.87 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.00 % |
| Market Cap. (M) | 27,510.35 |
| Return on Average Assets | 2.79 % |
| Return on Average Equity | 7.75 % |
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