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Saudi Kayan forecast to turn profitable in Q3 2021
In this report, Argaam highlights the expected results of Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co. (Saudi Kayan) for the third quarter of 2021, as well as its key events and feedstock prices.
The third-quarter revenue is expected to rise 36.8% year-on-year (YoY) to SAR 2.880 billion.
Quarter Revenue Changes (M Riyal)
| Item | Q3 2020 |
Q4 2020 |
Q1 2021 |
Q2 2021 |
Q3 2021 (Average Estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 2,105.54 | 2,476.95 | 2,683.33 | 2,973.71 | 2,880.10 |
| Change % | (8.58%) | 9.62% | 42.13% | 93.49% | 36.79% |
| Income from Affiliate | 4.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | NA |
| Change % | (23.50%) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Quarter Net Income Changes (M Riyal)
| Item | Q3 2020 | Q4 2020 | Q1 2021 | Q2 2021 | Q3 2021 (Average Estimate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | (28.16) | 158.42 | 492.89 | 781.00 | 628.90 |
| Extraordinary income/expense | 0.00 | (34.93) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - |
| Net Profit Before Unusual Items | (28.16) | 193.35 | 492.89 | 781.00 | - |
| EPS Before Unusual Items (Riyal/Share) | (0.02) | 0.13 | 0.33 | 0.52 | 0.42 |
Key events in Q3 2021
Quarterly Profit and Revenue (M Riyal)
Feedstock Prices ($/Ton)
Saudi Kayan depends on ethane and butane as the main feedstock for its olefins unit. The mix is then converted into ethylene glycol (1.065 million tons annually), low- and high-density polyethylene (300,000 and 400,000 tons annually), polypropylene (350,000 tons annually), polycarbonate (260,000 tons annually), along with butanol and other products.
Feedstock Prices ($/Ton)
Ethane
Butane
Prices of End Products
Prices of end products rose YoY in the three-month period. On the other hand, end products dropped on a QoQ basis, except for ethylene glycol that added 7%.
End Products ($/Ton)
Polypropylene (PP)
High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE)
Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE)
Monoethylene Glycol (MEG)
Polycarbonate
Average forecasts
Saudi Kayan is projected to turn to a net profit of SAR 628.9 million in Q3 2021, against a net loss of SAR 28.2 million in the year-ago period, based on average estimates by five research firms.
Quarterly Actuals vs Estimates (M Riyal)
Average Estimate (M Riyal)
| Analyst | Million Riyals |
|---|---|
| Riyad Capital | 678.00 |
| Osool and Bakheet Investment Co. | 638.50 |
| AlJazira Capital Company | 619.00 |
| SNB Capital Company | 617.00 |
| Arqaam Capital Limited Co. | 592.00 |
| Average | 628.90 |
| Net Profit Before Unusual Items (2020 - Q3) | (28.16) |
| Change % | 2,333.23% |
Stock Performance
| Item | The Company | TASI |
|---|---|---|
| YTD | (35.13 %) | 34.02 % |
| Change(12M) | (35.95 %) | 35.08 % |
| Previous Close | 19.40 | 11,542.88 |
| P/E adjusted (x) | 13.63 | 24.03 |
| EPS (TTM) before unusual items (SAR/Share) | 0.96 | - |
Valuation Data (Latest Share Price)
| P/E (TTM) | NEG |
| P/E Before Unusual Items (TTM) | NEG |
| P/BV | 0.88 |
| Dividend Yield | - |
| Market Cap. (M) | 10,665.00 |
| Return on Average Assets | (6.64 %) |
| Return on Average Equity | (13.30 %) |
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