OPEC keeps oil demand growth forecast unchanged

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) kept its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 unchanged.

Opec expects global oil demand to rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and 1.85 million bpd in 2025. Both forecasts remained unchanged from last month, according to the organization’s monthly report.

Demand data changed slightly in Q1 20254 after receiving updated actual data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), but these changes were offset by better-than-expected demand performance in the organization's non-member countries, the OPEC added.

Moreover, the organization maintained its forecasts for global economic growth in 2024 and 2025 at 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively. The US economy is expected to grow by 2.2% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025, while the EU economy is projected to grow by 0.5% and 1.2%, respectively.

Supplies of non-OPEC countries are expected to grow by 1.2 million bpd in 2024, unchanged from last month. The US, Canada, Brazil, and Norway are likely to be the most contributing countries to the growth, according to OPEC.

Liquids and non-conventional oil supplies are expected to rise by 0.1 million bpd to 8.3 million bpd on average in 2024 and by 20,000 bpd to 8.3 million bpd in 2025.

US crude oil imports rose in May to their highest level in six months, averaging 6.8 million bpd before the start of the summer driving season, according to preliminary data.

Likewise, US oil exports increased to a record 4.4 million bpd on average in May, a 15% increase over the same month last year.