IEA lifts 2025 global oil demand growth forecast

Logo of International Energy Agency (IEA)

The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 but trimmed its growth outlook for the end of this year, citing a market supply glut in the near term.

In its monthly report issued today, Dec. 12, the Paris-based agency expected global oil demand to grow by 840,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, with the pace accelerating to 1.1 million bpd in 2025.

That came against expectations in its November report that had suggested growth of 920,000 and 990,000 bpd in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

OPEC+’s delay in postponing the unwinding of the additional voluntary production cuts package for another three months (until next April) and its decision to extend the period of the gradual production boost for another nine months until September 2024, dialed back the potential of a supply glut that was projected next year, the IEA noted.

It explained that this does not negate the fact that the surplus production of some coalition countries, along with the growth supply momentum witnessed by some non-member countries, in tandem with the moderate growth in global demand, is bound to fuel supply overhang in 2025.

The report was issued shortly after OPEC, for the fifth time in a row, lowered its projections for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025, in an ongoing contradiction between estimates by both agencies.