Market cap of Saudi stocks excluding Aramco seen at $1.5 tln by 2030: Morgan Stanley

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Morgan Stanley expects the total market capitalization of Saudi stocks, excluding Aramco, to near $1.5 trillion by 2030, a growth rate of 9.4% annually.

In a recent report, the global indices compiler said these expectations will materialize if the Vision 2030 objectives are realized. The total market cap of Saudi stocks is forecast to reach 88% of the Kingdom’s gross domestic product (GDP). In this scenario, the Saudi nominal GDP is projected to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8% by 2030.

Based on the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecasts for GDP growth, including a rise in nominal GDP by a CAGR of 5.2% until 2030 (the IMF’s forecasts until 2027, but the bank used a fixed growth rate until 2030), the market cap of Saudi stocks in this case will stand at $1.1 trillion by 2030, Morgan Stanley added.

Meanwhile, the offering of some mega projects to the public, such as NEOM and The Red Sea, in the next few years will boost growth in the Saudi stock market.

The Saudi market’s weight on MSCI Emerging Markets Index and FTSE Russel Index reaches 4.3% and 4.8%, respectively.