IEA expects global coal demand to remain broadly flat through 2025

The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated on Wednesday that the massive increase in electricity demand in major economies suggests that global coal consumption will remain broadly stable in 2024 and 2025.

Demand for coal in the electricity and industrial sectors increased in 2023 to fill the gap left by a drop in hydropower production and a rapid increase in electricity demand, the IEA explained in a report.

The agency expected China, which accounts for more than half of global coal consumption, to witness a 6.5% increase in electricity demand in 2024, coinciding with a decline in coal production after two years of significant growth, resulting in record-high imports.

The IEA also said that efforts to increase coal production in India are ongoing, with an expected 10% increase in supply this year, and that demand for coal is expected to slow in the second half of 2024, after consumption increased sharply due to a decrease in hydroelectric power production in the first half.

Trade volumes have reached all-time highs since 2017, despite declining imports from Europe and Northeast Asia (Japan and Korea). Vietnam is expected to overtake Chinese Taipei as the fifth-largest coal importer, according to the report.

This comes as global coal demand increased by 2.6% in 2023, reaching an all-time high, fueled by robust growth in China and India, the world's top coal consumers.