IEA cuts 2024 global oil demand growth forecast

Oil barrels

The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its 2024 growth forecast for global oil demand, citing a downturn in Chinese demand as the primary factor.

In its monthly report issued today, Sept. 12, the IEA expects global oil demand to grow by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd), reaching around 103 million bpd in 2024. This is down from the previous estimates of a 970,000 bpd increase.

The IEA maintained its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025 at around 950,000 bpd and noted that the oil market could experience a supply surplus next year, even if the OPEC+ alliance maintains its current production restrictions.

The growth in global oil demand continues to steeply slow compared to the pre-pandemic rates, with the primary reason being the significant slowdown in Chinese demand.

Global oil demand grew by 800,000 bpd year-on-year (YoY) in H1 2024, marking the slowest increase since 2020, which is about one-third of the growth achieved during the same period in 2023.

Meanwhile, China's oil consumption fell by 280,000 bpd YoY in July, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline, according to the report.

The report also noted that global oil production increased by 80,000 bpd to 103.5 million bpd in August, with the rise in production from Guyana, Brazil, and other countries offsetting the decline in Libyan supplies due to political issues, as well as Norwegian and Kazakh supplies due to maintenance works.