OPEC sees oil demand surge as global economy set to double in 20 years

OPEC upgraded its outlook for global oil demand in the medium and long term, citing growth led by India, Africa, and the Middle East, as well as a slower shift to electric vehicles (EVs).

According to the 2024 World Oil Outlook published on Tuesday, OPEC expected global oil demand to reach 118.9 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2045, nearly 2.9 million bpd higher than anticipated in last year's report.

Global demand is projected to reach 111 million bpd by 2028, and 112.3 million bpd in 2029.  The 2028 figure is higher than last year’s forecast by 800,000 bpd.

On the other hand, demand in non-OECD countries is expected to rise by 28 million bpd between 2023 and 2050, while demand in OECD countries is estimated to retreat by more than 10 million bpd.

By 2050, the global vehicle fleet is projected to stand at 2.9 billion from 1.7 billion in 2023, and the internal combustion engine vehicles to extend domination, representing more than 70%.

“There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais stated, adding that the report expected the share of the OPEC+ alliance in the oil market to rise to 52% in 2050 from 49% in 2023, with the US production seen peaking in 2030.

In 2050, the global economy is projected to double to $358 trillion from $165 trillion in 2023, while the average global income set to rise from about $20,600 to $36,800.

Global GDP growth between 2023 and 2050 is expected to remain strong, increasing at an average rate of 2.9% per year, with non-OECD countries dominating growth forecasts at an average rate of 3.7% per year.