OPEC lowers global oil demand forecast for 2024, 2025

Logo of OPEC

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised down its global oil demand forecasts for both 2024 and 2025, citing updated actual data and a slight decline in demand expectations in certain regions.

In its monthly report released Monday, OPEC said that it had cut its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast by 106,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.9 million bpd.

The organization also trimmed its 2025 demand growth outlook by 102,000 bpd to 1.6 million bpd. OPEC noted that non-OECD countries will drive demand growth next year.

The report highlighted that non-OECD demand is expected to grow by about 1.5 million bpd year-on-year in 2025, supported by contributions from China, other Asian nations, the Middle East, and India.

Despite these downward revisions, OPEC emphasized that oil demand remains at healthy levels, well above the pre-pandemic historical average of 1.4 million bpd. The demand is being supported by strong air travel and road mobility, as well as industrial, construction, and agricultural activities.

On the supply side, OPEC maintained its projection for non-OPEC supply growth at 1.2 million bpd in 2024, led by the US, Canada, and Brazil. In 2025, non-OPEC supply growth is expected to reach 1.1 million bpd, supported by these three countries along with Norway.

OPEC kept its global economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 unchanged at 3% and 2.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, the organization slightly raised its US economic growth estimate for this year to 2.5%.