Federal Reserve headquarter
A Federal Reserve report revealed, on Dec. 18, the economic expectations of members of the Open Market Committee and heads of regional federal banks indicated slower interest rate cuts than previously expected.
The report showed an improvement in policymakers’ estimates for the growth rate of the US economy this year, with an increase in the expectations for inflation, while they cut forecasts for unemployment.
Policymakers indicated two more possible cuts of 25 basis points (bps) each time (50 points in total) over the next year, significantly less than reported in the last forecast in September, which indicated a cut of 100 bps.
|
Average Estimates of Fed members for key indicators of the US economy (%) |
||||
|
Indicator |
Forecast Date |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
|
Real GDP |
December |
2.5 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
|
September |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
December |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
|
September |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
|
|
PCE Price Index (Inflation) |
December |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
|
September |
2.3 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
|
|
Core PCE Price Index |
December |
2.8 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
|
September |
2.6 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
|
|
Interest Rate |
December |
4.4 |
3.9 |
3.4 |
|
September |
4.4 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
|
The above estimates show the expectations of policymakers for the change in the main economic indicators between the fourth quarter of the targeted year and the same quarter of the previous year.
The latest data showed that the unemployment rate in the US reached 4.2% during November. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index stood at 2.3% in October, while the core PCE price index reached 2.8% in the same month.
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