IEA cuts 2025 global oil demand growth forecast

The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025, citing a potential supply surplus driven by an expected increase in OPEC+ production and strong US output.

In its monthly report released on Thursday, the agency projected global oil demand to grow by over 1 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, down from its previous estimate of 1.1 million bpd.

Asian economies, led by China, are expected to account for nearly 60% of this growth, fueled by strong petrochemical sector consumption in Beijing, the report said.

The IEA noted that average oil prices declined by $7 per barrel in February and early March due to worsening market sentiment amid global trade tensions and OPEC+ plans to boost production in April.

US crude production remains at record levels, and Washington’s output is set to be the primary driver of global supply growth in 2025, the agency added.

The IEA estimated a global oil supply surplus of around 600,000 bpd this year, warning that the surplus could widen by an additional 400,000 bpd if OPEC+ continues unwinding voluntary output cuts beyond April without curbing excess production from member states exceeding their quotas.