GPCA '14: Gas feedstock shields GCC chems from crude slump

SINGAPORE (ICIS)--Petrochemical production in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) mostly relies on gas feedstock, which insulates regional players from both adverse and beneficial effects of falling crude prices, the head of the Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA) said on Sunday.

“GCC chemical producers are predominantly gas-based and the types that they use for production have not been deeply affected by the drop in crude oil prices as they are not directly linked,” GPCA secretary general Abdulwahab Al-Sadoun told ICIS.

The GCC region consists of the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait.

Oil prices have plunged about 30% since mid-June this year on concerns about ample global supplies amid slowing demand.

“The situation [falling oil prices], on the other hand, will have a positive impact on the naphtha producer or those dependent on naphtha feedstock production. Mixed-feedstock producers such as Sadara, the project between Saudi Aramco and Dow Chemical, is a key example,” Al-Sadoun said.

The Sadara complex in Jubail, Saudi Arabia, includes a 1.5m tonne/year mixed-feed cracker, as well as production units for polyurethanes (PU), propylene oxide (PO) and elastomers.

“Overall, I think the GCC producers’ cost leadership will remain, but obviously there are many challenges apart from the drop in crude oil prices, such as the competitive advantage of shale gas in the US,” Al-Sadoun said.

Solid economic growth in the GCC’s export markets – the Middle East and China – should also help bolster the region’s petrochemical industry, Al-Sadoun said.

Demand for petrochemicals from the GCC is expected to grow at an annual rate of 8-9% in the foreseeable future  underpinned by a rapidly growing population, he said, citing

that the projected growth is much higher than average industry growth rate on a global basis.

Global demand for chemicals is still expected to double by 2030 from today’s levels despite current worries about slowing economic growth in advanced economies and in China, which is major petrochemicals consumer, the GPCA executive said.

“There is growing population throughout the globe, [solid] economic growth within Asia, Latin America… and petrochemicals are becoming indispensable in our daily lives. Applications for our products are expanding throughout all economic sectors so I don’t think this [slowing economic growth] will have a major impact on petrochemicals demand,” Al-Sadoun said.

Given their significant feedstock advantage, petrochemical and chemical producers from the GCC countries have established strong foothold in China, to which market exports have consistently increased over the past decade, Al-Sadoun said.

China is the world’s biggest chemical market, and its demand for chemicals is still growing at double-digit rates, faster than the country’s GDP. Last year, China’s chemical industry was valued at $1,310bn, according to GPCA data.

“This is a clear signal that China has an unquenchable thirst for consumer-grade plastic – a demand that can be ably filled by GCC producers over the next few years. Both markets have to move to higher-value products, accelerated by increased competition from the US,” Al-Sadoun said.

Emphasising the importance of promoting partnerships, he said that the GPCA has dedicated a special seminar on the topic at the 9th annual Gulf Petrochemical Association (GPCA) Forum that will be held in Dubai on 23-25 November.

The seminar should help answer “how China’s economic outlook will impact the GCC and what factors are essential to a successful China-GCC partnership – from the perspective of both parties”, Al Saduon said.

The GPCA Forum to be held at Madinat Jumeirah in Dubail, UAE, is expected to attract more than 2,000 delegates, he said.