Saudi-listed banks are expected to post SAR 10.9 billion in combined earnings, a 3 percent year-on-year rise in first quarter, according to consensus forecasts.
National Commercial Bank (NCB), the kingdom’s largest bank in terms of assets, and Al Rajhi Bank are expected to post flat figures, with a slight y-o-y decline.
Saudi Hollandi Bank (SHB) is forecasted to post 18 percent profit growth in Q1, while Alinma Bank will likely report a 17 percent jump.
The below table illustrates analysts’ consensus for Q1 2015, compared to actual figures in Q1 2014:
|
Estimates Compared to Actual Profit – Q1-2014 (SAR mln) |
||||
|
change |
Q1 2015 estimates |
Q1 2014 profit |
No. of estimates |
Bank |
|
-- |
2,523 |
2,535 |
2 |
NCB |
|
+6% |
1,148 |
1,079 |
2 |
Riyad |
|
+3% |
164 |
159 |
4 |
Al-Jazira |
|
+1% |
342 |
338 |
1 |
Saudi Investment |
|
+18% |
491 |
417 |
1 |
Saudi Hollandi |
|
(2%) |
835 |
856 |
2 |
Saudi Fransi |
|
+1% |
1,086 |
1,081 |
2 |
SABB |
|
+10% |
783 |
713 |
1 |
ANB |
|
+5% |
1,299 |
1,241 |
2 |
Samba |
|
-- |
1,705 |
1,706 |
4 |
Al-Rajhi |
|
+12% |
194 |
174 |
3 |
Al-Bilad |
|
+17% |
343 |
293 |
4 |
Alinma |
|
+3% |
10912 |
10591
|
4 |
Total |
Among Saudi research firms, Al Istithmar Capital issued earnings estimates for all the listed banks except The Saudi Investment Bank (SAIB).
It was followed by Bakheet Investment Group, which released profit forecasts for 10 banks, while Albilad Capital issued forecasts for three lenders only.
The table below shows each firm’s profit forecasts for Q1:
|
Bank Estimates – Q1-2015 (SAR mln) |
|||||
|
Estimates |
Bakheet |
Al-Bilad Investment |
Alistithmar Capital |
KSB |
Bank |
|
2,523 |
2,497 |
- |
2,548 |
- |
NCB |
|
1,148 |
1,194 |
- |
1,101 |
- |
Riyad |
|
164 |
137 |
180 |
178 |
161 |
Al-Jazira |
|
342 |
342 |
- |
- |
- |
Saudi Investment |
|
491 |
- |
- |
491 |
- |
Saudi Hollandi |
|
835 |
796 |
- |
874 |
- |
Saudi Fransi |
|
1,086 |
1,057 |
- |
1,115 |
- |
SABB |
|
783 |
- |
- |
783 |
- |
ANB |
|
1,299 |
1,361 |
- |
1,237 |
- |
Samba |
|
1,705 |
1,753 |
1,550 |
1,705 |
1,811 |
Al-Rajhi |
|
194 |
185 |
- |
210 |
188 |
Al-Bilad |
|
343 |
336 |
340 |
354 |
341 |
Alinma |
Riyad Bank, the kingdom’s third-largest listed lender, posted SAR 1,172 billion in earnings for the first quarter, an 8.6 percent increase compared to the same period last year. Its results were also slightly higher than the consensus of analysts.
Meanwhile, Bank Albilad reported SAR 174 million earnings in the first quarter, missing forecasts by 11 percent.
The remaining Tadawul-listed banks are expected to release financials over the next two weeks.
|
Estimates Compared to Actual Profit — )SAR mln( |
|||||
|
Change |
Actual net profit |
Consensus estimate |
Maximum estimate |
Minimum estimate |
Bank |
|
+2% |
1,172 |
1,148 |
1,194 |
1,101 |
Riyad |
|
(11%) |
174 |
194 |
210 |
185 |
Al-Bilad |
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