SIIG’s net profit likely to grow in Q3 2022

24/10/2022 Argaam Exclusive

In this report, Argaam highlights the expected results of Saudi Industrial Investment Group (SIIG) for the third quarter of 2022, in addition to its key events and feedstock prices.

 

The group’s revenues are projected to reach SAR 319.0 million.

Quarter Revenue Changes (M Riyal)

Item Q3
2021
Q4
2021
Q1
2022
Q2
2022
Q3
2022
(Average Estimate)
Sales 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 319.00
Change % NA NA NA NA NA
Income from Affiliate 351.56 299.93 381.86 335.27 NA
Change % 139.63% (11.42%) (22.64%) (55.93%) NA

Quarter Net Income Changes (M Riyal)

Item Q3
2021
Q4
2021
Q1
2022
Q2
2022
Q3
2022
(Average Estimate)
Net Income 203.95 121.65 234.88 284.20 254.50
Extraordinary income/expense 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -
Net Profit Before Unusual Items 203.95 121.65 234.88 284.20 -
EPS Before Unusual Items (Riyal/Share) 0.45 0.27 0.35 0.42 0.38

Key Events in Q3 2022:

 

SIIG said that 58-day scheduled maintenance works at its joint venture project, Saudi Polymers Co., started on Oct. 1.

 

The group’s board of directors approved a new strategy that aims to boost and diversify the current business portfolio.

 

SIIG plans to achieve this by continuing to pursue growth of its petrochemical projects and entering new sustainable business sectors that adopt state-of-art techniques.

Quarterly Profit and Revenue (M Riyal)

Feedstock Prices:

 

Petrochem uses ethane and propane as main feedstock for its olefins unit to produce 550,000 tons per annum (tpa) of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE), 550,000 tpa of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and 400,000 tpa of polypropylene (PP), along with other products such as hexane.

 

Jubail Chevron Phillips Co., which is 50% owned by SIIG, produces 150,000 tpa of propylene and 730,000 tpa of styrene.

 

Meanwhile, SIIG’s 50%-owned affiliate, Saudi Chevron Phillips, produces benzene, cyclohexane and motor gasoline blend stock.

Feedstock Prices ($/Ton)

Ethane

Ethane prices in Saudi Arabia stand at $1.75 per MMBTU (ethane accounts for 30% of total feedstock, as per Argaam’s estimates).

Q3 - 2022 Q3 - 2021 Change (%) Q2 - 2022 Change (%)
1.75 1.75 0.00 % 1.75 0.00 %

Propane

Average prices of Saudi Aramco’s propane rose 5% year-on-year (YoY) but declined 20% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q3 2022. The prices of liquid petroleum gas (LPG), such as propane and butane, are set at a 20% discount for Saudi companies compared with export prices (propane and natural gasoline account for 70% of feedstock, based on Argaam's estimates).

Q3 - 2022 Q3 - 2021 Change (%) Q2 - 2022 Change (%)
680.77 649.23 4.86 % 846.92 (19.62 %)

Prices of end products edged lower YoY and QoQ.

End Products ($/Ton)

Polypropylene (PP)

Polypropylene fell 13% YoY and 15% QoQ during Q3 2022.

Q3 - 2022 Q3 - 2021 Change (%) Q2 - 2022 Change (%)
977.31 1,129.62 (13.48 %) 1,149.23 (14.96 %)

Propylene

Propylene prices retreated 9% YoY and 20% QoQ in Q3 2022.

Q3 - 2022 Q3 - 2021 Change (%) Q2 - 2022 Change (%)
891.54 979.23 (8.96 %) 1,113.08 (19.90 %)

High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE)

HDPE prices dropped 7% YoY and 16% QoQ in Q3 2022.

Q3 - 2022 Q3 - 2021 Change (%) Q2 - 2022 Change (%)
991.15 1,071.15 (7.47 %) 1,179.62 (15.98 %)

Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE)

LLDPE prices fell 9% YoY and 16% QoQ in Q3 2022.

Q3 - 2022 Q3 - 2021 Change (%) Q2 - 2022 Change (%)
986.92 1,090.38 (9.49 %) 1,180.38 (16.39 %)

Styrene

Styrene prices declined 1% YoY and 15% QoQ.

Q3 - 2022 Q3 - 2021 Change (%) Q2 - 2022 Change (%)
1,168.85 1,183.08 (1.20 %) 1,382.69 (15.47 %)

Benzene

Benzene decreased 1% YoY and 20% QoQ during Q3 2022.

Q3 - 2022 Q3 - 2021 Change (%) Q2 - 2022 Change (%)
986.54 996.92 (1.04 %) 1,240.38 (20.47 %)

Average Forecasts:

 

SIIG is forecast to report a net profit of SAR 254.5 million in Q3 2022, a 25% rise from SAR 204.0 million a year earlier, based on average estimates compiled by four research firms.

Quarterly Actuals vs Estimates (M Riyal)

Average Estimate (M Riyal)

Analyst Million Riyals
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. 332.11
U-Capital Co. 267.90
Riyad Capital 245.00
SNB Capital Company 173.00
Average 254.50
Net Profit Before Unusual Items (2021 - Q3) 203.95
Change % 24.79%

P/E (TTM)

Stock Performance

Item The Company TASI
YTD (23.51 %) 6.56 %
Change(12M) (21.32 %) 1.92 %
Previous Close 23.00 12,075.27
P/E adjusted (x) 24.96 20.90
EPS (TTM) before unusual items (SAR/Share) 1.49 -

Valuation Data (Latest Share Price)

P/E (TTM) 63.62
P/E Before Unusual Items (TTM) 63.62
P/BV 1.30
Dividend Yield 4.50 %
Market Cap. (M) 12,801.41
Return on Average Assets 1.92 %
Return on Average Equity 1.99 %

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