Aggregate profit of Saudi banks to rise 35% in Q4

11/01/2018 Argaam Exclusive

Saudi banks are estimated to make a combined profit of SAR 10.9 billion in the final quarter of 2017, up 35 percent year-on-year (YoY), but down by 4 percent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), according to research estimates compiled by Argaam.

 

Market blue chip Al Rajhi Bank is estimated to make a net profit of SAR 2.32 billion, rising 13.6 YoY in Q4.

 

National Commercial Bank (NCB) is forecasted to post SAR 2.3 billion in net profit, edging up 0.9 percent YoY.

 

Riyad Bank’s profit is expected to nearly triple to SAR 863.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2017, while Banque Saudi Fransi’s (BSF) net profit is seen 147.5 percent higher YoY at SAR 925.7 million.

 

Alinma Bank’s net earnings are expected to hike by 41.8 percent YoY to SAR 553.2 million.

 

Alawwal Bank is estimated to turn profitable in Q4 2017, recording net earnings of SAR 287.3 million, versus net losses of SAR 249.3 million in the same period last year.

 

Meanwhile, Saudi Investment Bank (SAIB) is projected to report a profit decline of 8.8 percent to SAR 275.50 million in the fourth quarter.

Analyst Estimates (Net Income)

Company No. of Analysts 2016 - Q4 (a) 2017 - Q4 (e) Difference
ALRAJHI 8 2,047.27 2,325.87 13.6 %
ALINMA 8 390.22 553.17 41.8 %
ALBILAD 6 221.52 255.85 15.5 %
ANB 5 565.06 702.64 24.3 %
BJAZ 5 152.43 229.80 50.8 %
SAB 5 606.58 978.07 61.2 %
SAMBA 5 1,089.41 1,206.09 10.7 %
BSF 5 374.01 925.66 147.5 %
RIBL 4 293.37 863.55 194.4 %
Alawwal 4 (249.34) 287.29 215.2 %
SNB 4 2,286.72 2,306.75 0.9 %
SAIB 2 302.17 275.50 (8.8 %)
Total 8 8,079.41 10910.24 35.0 %

Among Saudi research firms, Osool & Bakheet Investment Company (OBIC) issued profit forecasts for the whole sector, while NCB Capital and Alistithmar Capital issued forecasts for 11 lenders each. 

Estimates per Analyst

OSOOL AND BAKHEET Alistithmar Capital SNB Capital Riyad Capital Sico Value Capital AlJazira Capital Albilad Capital Average
ALRAJHI 2,400.00 2,307.36 2,369.00 2,315.00 2,247.00 2,326.80 2,343.80 2,298.00 2,325.87
ALINMA 542.30 598.98 555.00 557.00 540.00 517.40 554.70 560.00 553.17
ALBILAD 239.30 252.38 245.00 268.00 - 269.40 261.00 - 255.85
ANB 756.80 706.40 729.00 675.00 646.00 - - - 702.64
BJAZ 206.70 233.91 230.00 - - 242.40 - 236.00 229.80
SAB 957.20 993.15 955.00 998.00 987.00 - - - 978.07
SAMBA 1,131.20 1,164.26 1,206.00 1,283.00 1,246.00 - - - 1,206.09
BSF 965.70 876.61 850.00 976.00 960.00 - - - 925.66
RIBL 850.00 883.18 865.00 - 856.00 - - - 863.55
Alawwal 250.00 278.14 281.00 340.00 - - - - 287.29
SNB 2,349.60 2,385.40 - 2,330.00 2,162.00 - - - 2,306.75
SAIB 250.00 - 301.00 - - - - - 275.50

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