12/10/2022 Argaam Exclusive
Research firms forecast the Saudi banking sector to post a rise of 20% year-on-year (YoY) and 6% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q3 2022 aggregate net profit, according to data compiled by Argaam.
The Saudi banks’ aggregate net profit is predicted to reach SAR 15.95 billion on average in the three-month period, compared to SAR 15.10 billion in Q2 2022 and SAR 13.25 billion in Q3 2021.
Forecasts are bullish for most banks on yearly and sequential bases, topped by Bank AlJazira (+41%), Saudi British Bank (SABB) (32%), Saudi National Bank (SNB) (+29.3%), Alinma Bank (+29%), and Saudi Investment Bank (SAIB) (23%).
The following table compares research firms’ average Q3 2022 forecasts to the actual results YoY and QoQ:
| Company | No. of Analysts | 2021 - Q3 (a) | 2022 - Q3 (e) | Difference |
| ALRAJHI | 8 | 3,793.75 | 4,368.47 | 15.1 % |
| SAB | 6 | 885.30 | 1,166.35 | 31.7 % |
| BSF | 6 | 907.25 | 911.81 | 0.5 % |
| ALINMA | 6 | 738.09 | 952.20 | 29.0 % |
| SNB | 6 | 3,980.27 | 4,893.27 | 22.9 % |
| ALBILAD | 5 | 449.70 | 527.23 | 17.2 % |
| ANB | 5 | 665.35 | 754.49 | 13.4 % |
| RIBL | 4 | 1,542.81 | 1,751.67 | 13.5 % |
| BJAZ | 3 | 204.53 | 288.33 | 41.0 % |
| SAIB | 2 | 274.35 | 338.38 | 23.3 % |
| Total | 8 | 13,441.40 | 15952.20 | 18.7 % |
Osool & Bakheet Investment Co. topped the list of research firms in terms of coverage, with 10 banks.
The brokerage expected SNB’s profits to break the SAR 5 billion barrier.
It is worth noting that SNB Capital reported the closest expectations for Al Rajhi’s Q2 2022 results, while Ubhar Capital’s estimates were the nearest for SNB in Q2 2022.
The following table shows the research firms’ forecasts for banks’ Q3 2022 results:
| TASI | 12,415.49 | (23.99) | (0.19 %) |
| ALRAJHI | 99.00 | (1.40) | (1.39%) |
| ALBILAD | 39.80 | 0.40 | 1.01% |
| ANB | 21.36 | 0.10 | 0.47% |
| BJAZ | 18.88 | (0.08) | (0.42%) |
| RIBL | 29.40 | 0.30 | 1.03% |
| SAB | 36.00 | 0.15 | 0.42% |
| SAMBA | 39.05 | 1.70 | 4.62% |
| BSF | 16.10 | 0.06 | 0.38% |
| Alawwal | 19.58 | 0.28 | 1.45% |
| SAIB | 15.10 | 0.06 | 0.40% |
| ALINMA | 29.90 | (0.70) | (2.29%) |
| SNB | 34.10 | 0.15 | 0.44% |
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