Research firms expect Saudi banks' profit to grow 20% YoY, 6% QoQ in Q3 2022

12/10/2022 Argaam Exclusive

Research firms forecast the Saudi banking sector to post a rise of 20% year-on-year (YoY) and 6% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q3 2022 aggregate net profit, according to data compiled by Argaam.

 

The Saudi banks’ aggregate net profit is predicted to reach SAR 15.95 billion on average in the three-month period, compared to SAR 15.10 billion in Q2 2022 and SAR 13.25 billion in Q3 2021.

 

Forecasts are bullish for most banks on yearly and sequential bases, topped by Bank AlJazira (+41%), Saudi British Bank (SABB) (32%), Saudi National Bank (SNB) (+29.3%), Alinma Bank (+29%), and Saudi Investment Bank (SAIB) (23%).

 

The following table compares research firms’ average Q3 2022 forecasts to the actual results YoY and QoQ:

QOQ YOY

Analyst Estimates (Net Income)

Company No. of Analysts 2021 - Q3 (a) 2022 - Q3 (e) Difference
ALRAJHI 8 3,793.75 4,368.47 15.1 %
SAB 6 885.30 1,166.35 31.7 %
BSF 6 907.25 911.81 0.5 %
ALINMA 6 738.09 952.20 29.0 %
SNB 6 3,980.27 4,893.27 22.9 %
ALBILAD 5 449.70 527.23 17.2 %
ANB 5 665.35 754.49 13.4 %
RIBL 4 1,542.81 1,751.67 13.5 %
BJAZ 3 204.53 288.33 41.0 %
SAIB 2 274.35 338.38 23.3 %
Total 8 13,441.40 15952.20 18.7 %

Osool & Bakheet Investment Co. topped the list of research firms in terms of coverage, with 10 banks.

 

The brokerage expected SNB’s profits to break the SAR 5 billion barrier.

 

It is worth noting that SNB Capital reported the closest expectations for Al Rajhi’s Q2 2022 results, while Ubhar Capital’s estimates were the nearest for SNB in Q2 2022.

 

The following table shows the research firms’ forecasts for banks’ Q3 2022 results:

Estimates per Analyst

OSOOL AND BAKHEET Hermes Riyad Capital Sico Goldman Sachs SNB Capital AlJazira Capital U-Capital Average
ALRAJHI 4,411.94 4,414.00 4,472.00 4,301.00 4,200.00 4,383.00 4,324.50 4,441.30 4,368.47
SAB 1,289.49 1,122.00 1,131.00 1,087.00 1,253.43 - - 1,115.20 1,166.35
BSF 915.92 915.00 954.00 894.00 879.94 912.00 - - 911.81
ALINMA 1,008.30 - 946.00 840.00 980.00 988.00 950.90 - 952.20
SNB 5,181.83 5,249.00 4,819.00 4,556.00 4,657.00 - - 4,896.80 4,893.27
ALBILAD 540.55 497.00 543.00 - - 533.00 522.60 - 527.23
ANB 833.47 765.00 775.00 664.00 735.00 - - - 754.49
RIBL 1,872.66 1,758.00 - 1,606.00 1,770.00 - - - 1,751.67
BJAZ 296.00 288.00 - - - 281.00 - - 288.33
SAIB 337.75 339.00 - - - - - - 338.38

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Stock Prices

ALRAJHI 89.20 (0.20) (0.22%)
ALBILAD 38.85 (0.50) (1.27%)
ANB 20.18 0.14 0.70%
BJAZ 17.70 0.12 0.68%
RIBL 26.15 0.40 1.54%
SAB 36.20 (0.05) (0.14%)
SAMBA 39.05 1.70 4.62%
BSF 35.25 (0.20) (0.57%)
Alawwal 19.58 0.28 1.45%
SAIB 12.60 0.16 1.29%
ALINMA 32.25 (0.55) (1.67%)
SNB 36.90 0.05 0.14%

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