Saudi cement producers’ Q4 2022 aggregate profit expected to soar 101% YoY, 20% QoQ

18/01/2023 Argaam Exclusive

The aggregate profit of 12 Tadawul-listed cement firms under coverage is expected to surge 101% year-on-year (YoY) and 20% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to SAR 617 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to research house estimates compiled by Argaam.

Research firms’ forecasts were bullish for most cement producers in Q4 2022 compared to the year-earlier period. Tabuk Cement Co., Yamama Cement Co., Yanbu Cement Co., City Cement Co. and Arabian Cement Co. were expected to post the biggest rise in the fourth-quarter profit.

On the other hand, expectations were negative for Umm Al-Qura Cement Co. (-93% YoY) and Eastern Province Cement Co. (-5% YoY).

On a sequential basis, eight cement producers were projected to report higher earnings.

The table below compares research firms’ average forecasts for Q4 2022 to actual results in Q3 2022 and Q4 2021:

QOQ YOY

Analyst Estimates (Net Income)

Company	No. of Analysts	2021 - Q4 (a)	2022 - Q4 (e)	Difference
QACCO	7	30.44	44.79	47.2 %
SAUDI CEMENT	7	67.40	111.34	65.2 %
SPCC	7	97.91	98.03	0.1 %
YC	7	(18.86)	109.90	682.8 %
YCC	7	9.87	67.72	586.2 %
ACC	6	23.31	58.45	150.7 %
EPCCO	5	33.39	39.33	17.8 %
CITY CEMENT	4	6.51	32.51	399.7 %
NAJRAN CEMENT	3	36.03	39.20	8.8 %
TCC	2	0.34	12.50	3,555.0 %
UACC	2	19.51	1.07	(94.5 %)
HCC	1	(4.77)	2.00	142.0 %
Total	7	301.08	616.82	104.9 %

SICO Bank took the first place among research firms in terms of coverage, providing forecasts for 12 companies.

The following table shows the outlook of research firms for cement producers in Q4 2022:

Estimates per Analyst

	Sico	OSOOL AND BAKHEET	Hermes	AlJazira Capital	Al Rajhi Capital	SNB Capital	Riyad Capital	Average
QACCO	36.00	56.75	34.00	54.80	60.00	31.00	41.00	44.79
SAUDI CEMENT	113.00	117.39	92.00	116.00	123.00	113.00	105.00	111.34
SPCC	109.00	101.18	91.00	98.40	95.00	91.60	100.00	98.03
YC	104.00	122.28	117.00	94.20	152.00	70.80	109.00	109.90
YCC	77.00	67.82	61.00	73.90	61.00	61.30	72.00	67.72
ACC	57.00	54.79	62.00	64.90	62.00	50.00	-	58.45
EPCCO	39.00	36.54	33.00	46.70	-	41.40	-	39.33
CITY CEMENT	39.00	32.63	29.00	29.40	-	-	-	32.51
NAJRAN CEMENT	38.00	37.60	-	-	42.00	-	-	39.20
TCC	11.00	-	14.00	-	-	-	-	12.50
UACC	4.00	(1.87)	-	-	-	-	-	1.07
HCC	2.00	-	-	-	-	-	-	2.00

Market Index

TASI	11,840.52	(27.40)	(0.23 %)

Stock Prices

ACC	26.05	(0.10)	(0.38%)

EPCCO	33.65	0.15	0.44%

QACCO	53.70	(0.80)	(1.47%)

SAUDI CEMENT	41.00	(0.55)	(1.33%)

SPCC	33.20	(0.35)	(1.04%)

TCC	12.40	(0.32)	(2.53%)

YC	31.40	(0.35)	(1.11%)

YCC	23.40	(0.24)	(1.02%)

HCC	11.62	0.02	0.17%

JOUF CEMENT	10.20	(0.02)	(0.20%)

NORTHERN CEMENT	8.95	0.00	0.00%

NAJRAN CEMENT	9.24	(0.06)	(0.65%)

CITY CEMENT	17.64	0.04	0.23%

UACC	17.80	0.18	1.02%

RIYADH CEMENT	32.45	(0.25)	(0.77%)

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